Development and implementation of the numerical model for predicting the values of ecological footprint, based on the Monte Carlo methodology

Abstract

The impact of human activities on the environment can be observed through the ecological footprint - the biologically productive area of land and water that is needed to satisfy human demands. In order to achieve and maintain sustainability, Earth’s natural capital needs to be preserved. Thus, it is of high importance for scientific and general community to analyze and predict the ecological footprint in order to successfully manage natural resources and protect the environment. The aim of this paper is to develop and implement a numerical model based on Monte Carlo methodology, for predicting the values of ecological footprint (EF). The model is based on systematic analysis of six input variables: (1) Rural population, (2) Urban population, (3) GDP per capita, (4) Energy use, (5) Electric power consumption, (6) Electricity production, and one output variable which is the total ecological footprint of consumption. The dataset included data from European, North American, South American, Asian and African countries, as well from Australia. Predicted values from the model were then compared with the measured ones, in order to verify the accuracy of the model.